Published 11/8/2006
Republicans won all three Nebraska House races.
By Josh Funk
OMAHA, Neb. - Republican victories in all three Nebraska House races show just how hard it is for a Democrat to win in this state, even when many voters nationwide were unhappy with the GOP.
Nebraska's Democratic House candidates likely benefited from voters' general discontent with Republicans and the war in Iraq, but that didn't translate into wins.
Republican Adrian Smith finished with 55 percent of the 3rd District vote after repelling a strong challenge from Democrat Scott Kleeb. And Republican incumbents Jeff Fortenberry and Lee Terry won re-election, although Terry received a scare from Democratic newcomer Jim Esch.
"It's very difficult for a Democrat to win in Nebraska, and I think it's especially difficult in the 3rd District," said John Hibbing, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
Smith attributed his win to good fundraising and a good effort on the ground, and he acknowledged that a last-minute visit by President Bush probably didn't hurt either. After all, Bush received 75 percent of the vote in the district in 2004.
Neither Smith nor Kleeb brought up the war in Iraq much during the campaign. Instead, both men focused more on farm policy and economic development in the mostly rural district.
"I think the voters of the 3rd District are interested in a wide range of issues," Smith said.
Kleeb said he feels great about the campaign he ran and the final result.
"I think what we did is started a conversation in a place that hasn't had a conversation in a while," said Kleeb, the Yale-educated ranch hand from Dunning.
Finishing with 45 percent of the vote is about 15 percentage points better than Kleeb said he expected. But the race attracted more attention in the closing weeks of the campaign because Kleeb released an internal poll showing him leading in the heavily Republican district.
"It's amazing that Kleeb did as well as he did," Hibbing said.
Republicans make up 59 percent of voters in the 3rd District, which covers the western two-thirds of the state. Democrats make up 28 percent, with the remaining 13 percent are independents or members of other parties.
Diane Duffin, an associated professor of political science at the University of Nebraska at Kearney, said Kleeb ran a good campaign and won 11 of the 69 counties in the district.
But Duffin said Republicans clearly were worried about Kleeb's chances late in the campaign because they arranged Sunday's rally with President Bush in Grand Island.
"Two days before the election, George Bush shouldn't have to come here to defend the 3rd District of Nebraska unless they're worried about it," Duffin said.
Republicans have represented the 3rd District since 1961, but two of the three times the 3rd District seat has been open, Democrats almost pulled the upset. In 1974, Wayne Ziebarth came within 800 votes of winning. In 1990, Sandy Scofield came within 4,400.
Terry said that during the campaign Smith, Fortenberry and he talked about how this year Republicans faced the worst atmosphere since right after the Watergate scandal broke.
"We recognized that we had to deal with that negative atmosphere," Terry said. "We did it by working hard and going one-on-one with the voters."
An Associated Press poll conducted on Election Day showed Nebraska voters evenly split over the war in Iraq, with half indicating they disapprove of the war. Just under half said they disapprove of George Bush's handling of his job as president.
Terry said he believes disapproval of Bush and the war in Iraq helped his opponent, Esch, win 45 percent of the vote. Throughout the campaign, Esch criticized Terry's stance on the war in Iraq.
Terry said he underestimated the extent of discontent with Republicans and the Iraq war in the 2nd District.
Hibbing said Esch's strong showing in his first run for office with an underfunded campaign was impressive.
"That, to me, was one of the surprises of the night," Hibbing said.
In the 1st District, Fortenberry won 59 percent of the vote to defeat Democrat Maxine Moul, who served as Nebraska's lieutenant governor from 1991 to 1993 under then-Gov. Ben Nelson.
Hibbing said Moul was thought to have a good change to win going into the race because of her experience in public office, and because Fortenberry had held the House seat for only one term.
"It (Moul's loss) shows how hard it is for a Democrat in Nebraska," Hibbing said.
A service of the Associated Press(AP)
http://www.beatricedailysun.com/articles/2006/11/09/ap-state-ne/d8l95ed00.txt